Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Procurement Delay Drivers in Subnational Road Infrastructure Projects: A Topsis-Based Approach

Abstract

Procurement delays pose a major constraint to the effective delivery of road infrastructure projects in developing economies. This study investigates the key causes, impacts, and relative importance of procurement delays in state-funded road projects in Rivers State, Nigeria. Adopting a quantitative, cross-sectional research approach, primary data were obtained through structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with procurement officers, engineers, consultants, and contractors. A Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) based multi-criteria decision-making model was employed to prioritize delay factors using frequency of occurrence (FOI), severity of impact (SoII), and the factor importance score (FIS). The results reveal that financial limitations, weak governance structures, macroeconomic instability, and security-related risks are the most influential contributors to procurement delays. Delayed release of project funds (Cᵢ = 0.88933) ranked highest, followed by corruption and favoritism (Cᵢ = 0.74875), inflation and fluctuating material costs (Cᵢ = 0.68924), security challenges (Cᵢ = 0.57521), and inadequate procurement planning (Cᵢ = 0.56707). Robustness testing through sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the rankings, with strong correlation coefficients (Spearman’s ρ > 0.94; Kendall’s τ > 0.84). The study concludes that meaningful improvements in project delivery performance can be achieved by integrating financial discipline, governance reforms, and risk management strategies with enhanced procurement processes. It recommends timely release of funds, strengthened anti-corruption frameworks, proactive risk mitigation, improved procurement planning, and increased adoption of digital procurement systems to reduce delays in road infrastructure projects.