Navigating Uncertainty: Applying Administrative Theories to Nigeria’s Path Towards Modernization

Abstract

This paper investigates how a hybrid theoretical framework, combining multiple administrative theories, can diagnose Nigeria’s persistent governance uncertainties and inform its modernization efforts to achieve sustainable development. The study employs a multi-theoretical analysis and literature review, utilizing empirical evidence from studies across Weberian Bureaucracy, New Public Management, Public Choice Theory, the Prismatic Model, and Contingency Theory to construct a contextualized governance framework. The analysis is national in scope, focusing on systemic administrative failures within the Nigerian public sector, while drawing comparative lessons from successful reforms in countries like Georgia and India. Nigeria’s administrative uncertainty is not mere incompetence but a systemic failure driven by the rational choice of elites and the constant clash between formal Weberian rules and informal neo-patrimonial (Prismatic) realities. Reform efforts fail because they disregard the Contingency principle, imposing uniform solutions on a heterogeneous state. This study provides a comprehensive diagnostic tool, synthesizing disparate theories to explain the administrative bottleneck hindering development and prescribing specific, technology-backed, and adaptive institutional solutions for Nigeria.