India-China Bilateral Trade Dynamics: An Empirical Assessment of Trade Patterns and potential.
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Abstract
The competitiveness of bilateral trade between India and China is analyzed for the period 2004 to 2024 with the help of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) and Trade Intensity Index (TII) in this study. Secondary data from UN Comtrade, ITC Trade Map and WITS are used for the analysis. The results show that India has comparative advantage mainly in the niche manufactured products and the resource-based and agricultural products, where the RCA values are very high in some HS 4-digit products. The TCI results indicate upward trend in export compatibility with the demand for imports of China which shows considerable potential for exports. Persistent trade asymmetry is, however, found in India with export intensity being below unity as import intensity is always above unity, a phenomenon that indicates the continued reliance on Chinese imports, the TII points out. The study, in conclusion, notes that boosting export diversification, value addition and manufacturing competitiveness are critical to the realization of a more balanced and sustainable bilateral trade relationship...
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