The Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on Food Security in West Africa.

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine war disrupted a global agri-food system in which the two belligerents jointly supplied roughly one-third of traded wheat, a fifth of maize and barley, and over half of sunflower oil, alongside a sixth of internationally traded fertilizer. This study offers a data-driven, analytical assessment of the war's consequences for food security in West Africa, a region already burdened by conflict, climate shocks, and import dependence. Using secondary quantitative data drawn from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Cadre Harmonisé framework, and national statistical agencies, the study analyses four interlocking dynamics: the war's effect on Russian and Ukrainian grain production; the transmission of that shock through West Africa's grain supply chains; the escalation of food, fertilizer, and agricultural equipment costs; and the consequences of the July 2023 collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Findings show that the FAO Cereal Price Index rose by roughly 18 percent in 2022 to a record high, that fertilizer prices more than doubled between 2021 and 2022, and that the number of acutely food-insecure people in West and Central Africa rose from 10.7 million in 2019 to over 52 million by mid-2025. The termination of the BSGI in July 2023 removed a critical stabilizing mechanism, deepening price volatility and disproportionately harming import-dependent, low-income economies such as Nigeria, Senegal, and The Gambia. The study situates these findings within Food Regime Theory and the FAO's four-pillar food security framework, and concludes with policy recommendations centred on regional grain reserves, diversified import sourcing, and accelerated investment in domestic fertilizer and grain production capacity.